February 2023 Real Estate Update

Data as of March 6, 2023

Washington Market Key Findings

Slow Buyer Activity in the Region Reflects Higher Mortgage Rates in February

Low Inventory Has Also Constrained Activity and Pushed Prices Up

The lead-up to the spring market is bumpy in the Washington, D.C., metro area, as higher mortgage rates created headwinds in the market. The number of new pending sales in the D.C. region was higher than during January, but the February new pending sales was at its lowest level since 2014.

New listing activity in the Washington, D.C., region hit the lowest point in more than two decades in February. Many existing homeowners are sitting out the market because they do not want to have to give up a rock-bottom mortgage rate. Overall inventory rose from last year, but the number of active listings is still 40% lower than it was in February 2020.

Low inventory is the primary reason prices continue to rise across most of the Washington, D.C., region. The median price in the metro area rose 1.7% compared to a year ago. The region’s median price is now nearly 20% higher than it was three years ago.

Bright MLS T3 Home Demand Index

According to the Bright MLS T3 Home Demand Index (HDI), market activity in the Washington, D.C., region bumped down slightly from February’s reading of 74 to 72 in March. While activity is still slow, the spring buying season typically has stronger interest than the first quarter of the year.

The index for the Washington, D.C., metro area is down from 109 a year ago.

Market Outlook

In February, buyers and sellers geared up for the spring market. However, higher mortgage rates and economic uncertainty have muted housing market activity this year. Mortgage rates had begun to fall at the beginning of the year, but rates moved upward in February, and economic data suggests they may move higher in the weeks ahead.

While the road may be bumpy, expect housing market activity to pick up in March and April. Fewer buyers will be in the market, but there will also be fewer sellers. As a result, home prices in the Washington, D.C., area should be stable or continue to increase.

Closed Sales

Year-Over-Year Change

Closed sales in the Washington, D.C., region improved from January to February. There were 3,169 closed sales in February 2023. Closed sales typically improve as the weather gets warmer.

Median Sales Price

Year-Over-Year Change

After seeing a slight decrease in December, the median sales price in the Washington, D.C., metro continued to increase year-over-year. In February 2023, the median price of $535,000 was 1.7%. The median price for detached single-family homes saw its first year-over-year decline since September 2016. Attached properties and condos showed year-over-year price gains in February.

Median Days on Market

The median time on market dropped from about one month in January to 20 days in February. The time on market is higher than lastyear for all property types. The next few months will reveal whether the trend of higher days on market as the calendar turns followed by lower days in the spring returns as the norm in 2023.

New Pending Sales

Year-Over-Year Change

New pending sales increased from January to February. The 3,922 pending sales for the Washington, D.C., region are 28.3% lower than February 2022. All property types saw a year-over-year drop in pending sales but had a higher number for the first two months of 2023.

Active Listings

Year-Over-Year Change

Inventory remains tight for the Washington, D.C., metro. At 5,002 in February 2023, the amount is still significantly below the 8,562 of February 2020. Inventory has improved year-over-year starting in October 2022. The cautiousness of both buyers and sellers will determinethe direction of active listings as the spring buying season begins.

Showings

Showing activity rose again in February. From 62,457 in December to 97,497 in January to 103,136 in February for the Washington,D.C., region, it appears the typical gain in interest at the beginning of the year happened in 2023. Showings remain below their levels from last year but are above the February 2019 activity of 87,267

Local Markets

In February, home prices grew more slowly in the Washington, D.C.,region than in other areas of the Mid-Atlantic. Higher home prices create bigger affordability challenges for buyers, particularly as mortgage rates trended upward during the month. Prices rose strongly in Montgomery County, MD, where the median price rose 9.1% compared to last year, and prices were also up in Alexandria City and Loudoun County, VA, and Prince George’s County, MD. However, home prices fell year-over-year in other jurisdictions, including some suburban markets and Washington, D.C.

Homes are taking longer to sell, but there is a lot of variation across the metro area. In Washington, D.C., the median days on market in February was 45, which is nearly a month (29 days) longer than a year ago. By contrast, the median days on market was just nine in Montgomery County, MD.

Inventory remains limited across the metro area, with less than one month of supply in most local markets.

Why Aren’t Prices Falling?

In December, home prices fell in the Washington, D.C., metro area,but prices have been up year-over-year for the past two months. Despite fewer buyers, rising mortgage rates, and high home prices, home prices are still rising in most local markets in the region. Buyers who remain in the market are still finding relatively few options,and therefore prices continue to be pushed upward. Although higher mortgage rates have made it more difficult for some buyers, many are bringing significant equity—or cash—to the transaction.

A key exception to sustained price growth is Washington, D.C., where prices have fallen for five consecutive months.

Data provided by Bright MLS.