June 2019 Housing Market Update

Washington D.C. Metro nears median sales price of $500,000; sales down sharply; inventory levels decline for fifth consecutive month

The following analysis of the Washington, D.C. Metro Area housing market has been prepared by Elliot Eisenberg, Ph.D. of MarketStats by ShowingTime and is based on June 2019 Bright MLS housing data.

OVERVIEW

  • The June 2019 Washington D.C. Metro area median home price rose to an all-time high of $490,000, up 4.0% or $19,000 compared to last year and up 2.1% or $10,000 from last month’s previous record.
  • However, sales volume across the DC Metro area was down 5.5% to $3.1 billion, driven somewhat by closed sales of just 5,401, down 8.3% from last year.
  • New pending sales were also down, by 1.2% to 5,775, the second consecutive month of declines.
  • New listings of properties declined by 7.0% to just 6,829 and overall inventory levels declined by 13.3% to just 8,504 active listings, the lowest June level since 2013.
  • The average percent of original list price received at sale was 99.1%, the highest June level since 2013.

Home Prices

  • June’s median sales price of $490,000 was up 4.0% or $19,000 compared to last year and was up
  • 2.1% from last month’s $480,000, the 33rd consecutive month of Y-o-Y price appreciation.
  • Compared to last year, prices for townhomes rose 6.2% to $469,500 and condos rose by 3.3% to $325,000. For the second month in a row, single-family detached prices were flat at $600,000.
  • Prices remain well above the 5-year average of $460,200 and the 10-year average of $430,799.
  • This month’s median sales price is 38.4% higher than the trough seen in June 2010 of $354,000.
  • Falls Church City continues to have the most expensive homes in the region, with a median sales price of $899,000, a 5.8% increase from last June. Prince George’s County remains the most affordable area, with a median sales price of $310,000, a 4.4% increase over last year.
  • Elsewhere across the region, prices increased in Arlington County (+7.7% to $565,310), in Fairfax County (+3.7% to $565,000), in Washington D.C. (+2.8% to $620,000) and in Montgomery County (+2.2% to $488,123). They declined in Fairfax City (-4.7% to $595,500) and in Alexandria City (-9.3% to $494,250).
  • For the year-to-date, prices across the region are up 3.4% to $460,000.

Median Sales Price by Jurisdiction DC Metro Area

©2018 MarketStats by ShowingTime. Data Source: Bright MLS. Stats calculated 6/6/2019

Closed Sales

  • Closed sales of 5,401 were down significantly, declining by 8.3% compared to last year and 5.0% from last month.
  • Compared to last year, sales of single-family detached homes were down 5.1% to 2,765, sales of townhomes were down 11.0% to 1,317 and sales of condos were down 12.0% to 1,316.
  • Sales are below the 5-year average of 5,804 but remain above the 10-year average of 5,372.
  • June closed sales are 22.4% above the June 2011 trough of 4,413 and are 12.1% of 2017’s peak.
  • Only Fairfax City saw a gain in closed sales, increasing by 17.7% to 40. Elsewhere they were down, with the smallest percentage decline in Washington D.C. (-3.7% to 857) and the largest percentage decline in Falls Church City (-46.4% to 15).
  • For the year to date, regional closed sales are down 1.1% to 27,144.

©2019 MarketStats by ShowingTime. Data Source: Bright MLS. Statistics calculated 7/5/2019

New Pending Sales

  • The 5,775 new pending sales were down 1.2% from last year and down 9.8% from last month.
  • New pending sales of single-family detached homes were up 6.4% to 2,872, but new pending sales of townhomes were down 6.8% to 1,441, and condos declined 8.9% to 1,457.
  • New pendings are below the 5-year average of 5,863 but exceed the 10-year average of 5,407.
  • New pending sales this month were 45.9% more than the June 2010 low of 3,958 and are 3.4% below the peak June 2016 level of 5,979.
  • New pending sales activity across the region was mixed, with Montgomery County (+5.1% to 1,412) and Fairfax County (+1.9% to 1,667) seeing increases. Falls Church City was flat at 15 new pending sales, and Prince George’s County had the smallest percentage decline (-1.0% to 1,217), while Fairfax City had the largest percentage decline (-23.8% to 32).

©2019 MarketStats by ShowingTime. Data Source: Bright MLS. Statistics calculated 7/5/2019

New Listing Activity

  • After last month’s slight increase, this month new listings fell by 7.0% to 6,829. They were down 18.7% compared to last month, a slightly larger decline than the usual seasonal change.
  • New listings of condos compared to last year were down 10.8% to 1,728 and townhomes were down 8.0% to 1,710, while new listings of single-family homes were down 4.8% to 3,379.
  • New listings are below the 5-year average of 7,348 and just above the 10-year average of 6,819.
  • June new listings are 22.2% above the June 2012 low of 5,588 and are 12.5% below the June 2017 peak of 7,802.
  • New listing activity across the region was mostly down, with only Fairfax City (+15.2% to 53) seeing an increase. The smallest percentage decline was in Washington D.C. (-0.5% to 1,240) and the largest decline was in Falls Church City (-48.2% to 14).
  • For the year-to-date, regional new listings are down 3.8% to 39,845.

©2019 MarketStats by ShowingTime. Data Source: Bright MLS. Statistics calculated 7/5/2019

Month’s End Inventories

  • Active inventories of 8,504 declined 13.3% compared to last year and 0.7% compared to last month, the fifth consecutive month of declining year-over-year inventories.
  • Compared to last year, single-family detached inventories were down 8.2% to 5,001, townhome inventories were down 14.1% to 1,571 and condo inventories were down 24.6% to 1,898.
  • Inventories remain well below the 5-year average of 10,486 and the 10-year average of 11,410.
  • June inventory levels are just 2.7% above the 2013 low of 8,281 and are down 48.2% from the peak of 16,408 seen in June 2010.
  • June inventory levels increased in Washington D.C. (+5.2% to 1,561) and were flat in Fairfax City at 70, but they declined everywhere else, with the smallest percentage decline in Montgomery County (-3.1% to 2,419) and the largest percentage decline in Arlington County (-55.7% to 245).

Average Sales Price to Original List Price Ratio (SP to OLP)

  • The regional average sales price to original listing price ratio (SP to OLP ratio) for June was 99.1%, up just slightly from last year’s 99.0% but down from last month’s 99.4%.
  • Townhomes have the highest June SP to OLP ratio of 99.7%, followed by condos with a SP to OLP ratio of 99.3%, and single-family detached homes with a SP to OLP ratio of 98.7%.
  • June’s SP to OLP ratio exceeds the 5-year average of 98.5% and the 10-year average of 97.7%.
  • Over the last decade, this month’s 99.1% tied the June 2013 peak. The lowest was in June 2011, when it was just 94.7%.
  • This month, only one jurisdiction saw an SP to OLP ratio above 100%, which was Arlington County at 100.3%, the highest in the region.
  • Falls Church City had the lowest SP to OLP ratio in the region at 98.2%, which was down significantly from 100.1% last year (but the limited number of sales in Falls Church City make the data highly variable).
  • For the year to date, regional SP to OLP ratio is 98.7%, up just slightly from last year’s 98.5%.

©2019 MarketStats by ShowingTime. Data Source: Bright MLS. Statistics calculated 7/5/2019


Data provided by MarketStats by ShowingTime based on listing activity from Bright MLS.

About the DC Metro Housing Market Update 

The DC Metro Area Housing Market Update provides unique insights into the state of the current housing market by measuring the number of new pending sales, trends by home characteristics, and key indicators through the most recent month compiled directly from Multiple Listing Service (MLS) data in ShowingTime’s proprietary database. The DC Metro Area housing market includes: Washington, D.C., Montgomery County and Prince George’s County in Maryland, and Alexandria City, Arlington County, Fairfax County, Fairfax City, and Falls Church City in Virginia. Data provided by MarketStats by ShowingTime, based on listing activity from Bright MLS.

About Bright MLS 

The Bright MLS real estate service area spans 40,000 square miles throughout the Mid-Atlantic region, including Delaware, Maryland, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Virginia, Washington, D.C. and West Virginia. As a leading Multiple Listing Service (MLS), Bright serves approximately 85,000 real estate professionals who in turn serve over 20 million consumers. For more information, please visit www.brightmls.com.

About Elliot Eisenberg 

Elliot Eisenberg, Ph.D. is the Chief Economist of GraphsandLaughs, LLC, a firm specializing in economic consulting and data analysis. He is a frequent speaker on topics including: economic forecasts, economic impact of industries such as homebuilding and tourism, consequences of government regulation, economic development and other current economic issues. Dr. Eisenberg earned a B.A. in economics with first class honors from McGill University in Montreal, as well as a Masters and Ph.D. in public administration from Syracuse University. Eisenberg was formerly a Senior Economist with the National Association of Home Builders in Washington, D.C. He is a regularly featured guest on cable news programs, talk and public radio, writes a syndicated column and authors a daily 70 word commentary on the economy that is available at www.econ70.com.

Bright MLS Media Contact 

Rachel HendersonWarschawski
410-367-2700 x127
rachel.henderson@warschawski.com

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